Kotek's tax crackup strains coalition

The Kotek-union coalition ruptures as unions attack Democratic legislators and the Governor wilts under pressure

Oregon Governor Tina Kotek (D) responds to questions from a KATU reporter about whether she and other Democrats want to move a transportation tax from the November to the May election to avoid harming her re-election chances. (Image courtesy KATU).

The most important political division in deep-blue Oregon is not between Democrats and Republicans; it’s between Salem machine Democrats and Oregonians of all parties or none who believe there’s more to life than enriching the unions by sucking bone-dry the shriveled husk of the body politic.

Oregon’s public employee union-driven Democratic governing coalition is fracturing before our eyes, as more moderate Democrats question the wisdom of following a flailing Governor in her quest to raise taxes, again, on an exhausted public.

Unions are targeting Democrats who represent swing districts with ads demanding they sign on to an $444 million income tax hike while Tina Kotek self-combusts when asked by a reporter about her last tax hike from which she is attempting to run at maximum speed.

Unions turn on moderate Democrats

Our Oregon, an Oregon nonprofit dominated by public employee unions SEIU 503, Oregon Education Association and AFSCME, is, as reported by Oregon Public Broadcasting, running ads urging voters to contact four moderate Democratic legislators to demand they vote to disconnect Oregon’s tax code from the federal version, which could raise around $888 million in income taxes on Oregonians over the next two years.

Oregon, like 75% of all states with an income tax, generally follows the federal government’s lead in determining deductions and exemptions. The unions’ problem is Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress prevented a massive automatic tax hike by passing a law that prevented the expiration of tax cuts which have benifitted affected Oregon taxpayers for the past nine years. During that period, state general fund spending has increased by a fifty percent (50%) far outstripping wage, population and economic growth.

Congressional Republicans’ tax bill also included new deductions for income earned from tips and overtime.

The union ads target State Representatives Emerson Levy (Bend), Hai Pham (Hillsboro) and Daniel Nguyen (Lake Oswego) as well as State Senator Janeen Sollman (Hillsboro).

According to OPB, union group Our Oregon is running ads like this one, substituting other Democrats’ names for use in their respective districts. (Courtesy OPB).

A spokesperson for public sector union SEIU 503 clarified in an interview with OPB unions’ goal with the ads is to “completely disconnect from the federal tax code,” which would instantly raise taxes on working Oregonians who make some of their income from tips and overtime.

Don’t worry. SEIU 503 says after hiking taxes it will then permit Democrats to “selectively sign on to” some of the federal tax cuts. Unions say raising taxes is necessary to avert a $888 million reduction in state revenues - a chunk of which ends up in union coffers from state worker dues.

Union-targeted Democrats Levy and Sollman told OPB they were surprised to come under fire from their previous political allies. Levy said she was engaged in talks with other Democrats and had not made a final decision regarding the tax increase. Sollman said her offense was to “ask questions” about decoupling the state tax code from the federal.

As reported by Oregon Roundup Foundation, Levy and Sollman last year publicly questioned Kotek’s refusing to sign her signature $4.3 Billion transportation tax hike in an attempt to frustrate an effort to put a referendum on that increase on the ballot. Kotek’s maneuver backfired spectacularly; anti-tax petitioners got 250,000 signatures when their goal was only 100,000.

The Oregon Way is for public sector unions to tell Democrats what to do in private, for Democrats to do what they’re told in public, and for the voting public to keep voting for those Democrats regardless of the miserable results gained for their hard-earned money. The union ads demonstrate the Oregon Way is breaking down as the union machine can no longer entirely dictate public perception of state finances, and Democrats representing marginal legislative districts get nervous about towing the union line.

The union-moderate fissure originated in the unions’, and of course Kotek’s, disastrous handling of their coveted transportation tax increase last year. Kotek drove a wedge into the crack and pounded it - hard - last week.

Kotek melts

With her union allies whacking the kneecaps of her fellow partisans, Tina Kotek did what Tina Kotek does on the rare occassions she is asked direct questions in public on matters justifiable within the union tent but untenable outside: she dissembled and self-combusted.

Last Thursday, Kotek held a press availability after a meeting with her Prosperity Council, the recently announced group, helmed by former Republican State Senator Tim Knopp, Kotek formed recently as the state’s economic news became too bad for her to continue to ignore. She presumably expected hopeful, anodine questions from reporters, as is their wont.

Portland ABC affiliate KATU reporter Christina Giardinelli had other ideas. Giardinelli took the opportunity to ask, repeatedly, about Democrats’ desire to move the referendum vote on their $4.3 billion transportation tax hike from November to May.

Giardinelli began her queastioning, “Republicans claim that the transit bill question was put on the primary rather than the general election to avoid it having it be on the same ballot as your election. Is that true?”

(Here, Giardinelli misspoke. Legislative Democratic leaders announced their intention to move a bill, requiring a majority vote of both houses and the Governor’s signature, to change the date of the referendum vote.)

First, Kotek, appearing at least a bit surprised by the question, pretended she has nothing to do with deciding when voters will vote. “The legislature is in charge of that entire topic. It’s going to be determined by what they want to do and what the Constitution says.”

This is the kind of thing Kotek gets away with saying to reporters all the time, without follow-up. Giardinelli persisted, however.

“As a Democratic party, you guys, you talk to each other. You’re deciding this as a leader together as well.”

Kotek: “Again, it’s up to them and what’s key is that voters are going to get to vote on this.”

Giardinelli: “So is it a no then? This was not intentional?”

Kotek again avoided answering the question the answer to which every Oregonian knows perfectly well. Later, Giardinelli even circled back to this line of questioning, with Kotek again dissembling, finally concluding,

“What you need from your elected leaders is persistence and a can-do attitude.”

The underlying problem with Kotek is her dishonesty. She is used to backroom knuckle-breaking sessions as Speaker, the content of which rarely becomes public and when it does, she retains plausible deniability. On the transportation tax, her serial dishonesty has caught up with her, with at least one mainstream reporter willing to call her on it for all to see. Kotek did not acquit herself well, at all, and should expect to see clips from Thursday in campaign ads this fall.

I am not a moderate Democrat. Were I one, and were the unions running ads against me, I think I’d be very nervous about continuing to hitch my electoral wagon to the Kotek union industrial complex as it alternately lashes out at me and lies, blatantly, to my constituents. What began as just another Oregon tax hike has devolved into a serious political liability for Democrats, thanks to the bungling of Team Kotek/SEIU.

This is not to say Kotek will lose. It is not to say she will draw a primary challenger, though I think the likelihood of that has increased manifold over recent months. It is a Donald Trump midterm, and Oregon Democrats have traditionally done very well under those circumstances. They will do everything in their still considerable power to steer the discussion toward Trump and Minnesota and ICE and people dressed up as frogs outside of ICE. The safe bet is they will succeed, as they have so many times before.

But the pressure is building on Kotek and friends. That pressure is cracking the coalition that looks, and is intended to look, invincible. They can no longer unilaterally control the political discourse.

The results have been too bad, the dishonesty too blatant.

Oregon Roundup Foundation created this article. ORF is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit corporation dedicated to covering Oregon political and government news. Media outlets are welcome to use this article for free with attribution of the author and Oregon Roundup Foundation.